Predicting what the world, or the city, will look like in 35 years is a tremendous challenge. In these times of uncertainty, it isn’t clear what the community may look like in one or two years, and the changes that happen thereafter will build upon the choices we make along the way. What I can do is share my own thoughts on where things may be headed, and to do so honestly and without any value judgments or undue favor in the direction of optimism or pessimism. I share these thoughts as a private citizen only, and not as a representative for any body or organization I may lend my services to, and I don’t pretend to have any more likely of a vision than any other contributor… these are simply my thoughts, and no one is an authority on the future.
Economy- Over the course of 25 years, the economy in Bristol and in the US is likely to see a number of peaks and valleys, but in light of growing competition abroad and the leveling effect of communications and shipping technology, we’re not likely to see the levels of prosperity experienced in the 90s, notwithstanding some great technological breakthrough. Even then, Bristol may not be well-poised to take advantage of any new growth markets that may spring up, due to the high level of development and aging infrastructure in the northeast. Bristol’s manufacturing sector is likely to continue its decline, but may see some regrowth if some of the larger employers are able to survive the current downturn and evolve with changing market needs. If manufacturing completely bottoms-out, it may experience some resurgence once market forces bring wages, taxes, and property values the northeast in line with other parts of the country and the world.
Regardless, I think Bristol is likely to benefit primarily from its robust shopping district along Route 6, as well as for its supply of affordable housing which will likely be in high demand as single-family home ownership becomes less feasible for working Americans. A lot of homes will be converted to multi-family properties, or be replaced by apartment complexes if entire neighborhoods go vacant. New England, and the United States in general, are likely to mirror present-day Europe in terms of their transition towards accepting a more modest quality of life, which may sound depressing but will ultimately be for the best, I think.
The Downtown area could potentially see a resurgence if it is successfully integrated into the robust artery of commercial activity that is Route 6, though I tend to consider it somewhat of a longshot given the socio-economic realities surrounding that section of the city. A good long-term strategy would involve focusing improvements on the areas closest to Route 6, to draw people in and expand upon existing success and visibility in the region. Route 72 will certainly open the door, but something will need to invite people in before any benefits can be experienced from the highway expansion. Hopefully by 2035 Rt 72 may extend straight through to Rt 8, which would grant some easier accessibility to that whole corner of the state.
Government- In light of the economic outlook, which right now is quite grim, local government is likely to undergo some major transformations just within the next 5 years. Even if the economy rebounds, the damage that has been inflicted in the form of the national debt and massive State deficits will pose a fiscal crisis for numerous years to come, and resistance to tax increases will force significant reductions in service. A resurgence of county government is likely at least within the next 10 years in order to enhance efficiency and provide services for communities that are not able to weather current and future economic storms.
Alternate means of producing revenue will be a necessity, including local sales taxes and a growing number of public entrepreneurialism and self-funded services. Bristol’s mayoral government is likely to be supplemented by a professional administrator, as government becomes increasingly technology-driven and as increased regionalization limits the freedom of local political free-will.
A lot of the regulatory functions, such as building inspection and zoning, may be pared back out of necessity, and a lot of the bureaucratic processes for licenses, permits, and so forth, will be largely computer-driven. With more services becoming regionalized, it’s likely that City Hall will ultimately move from its current location to something smaller and better-suited to the community’s changing needs. The downside of deregulation will be a lower quality of new construction and development ventures.
Community- The character and culture of the community will be strongly influenced by demographics. Current trends strongly suggest that the Hispanic population will make up a much larger percentage of Bristol’s residents, so the influence of Hispanic culture and aesthetics will definitely be a shaping force in Bristol's future. There may also be some influx of young professionals from surrounding communities, as the towns in the Farmington Valley become cost-prohibitive to even the most educated and talented young people as they enter the workforce.
As manufacturing jobs become increasingly scarce, skilled trades such as plumbing, HVAC, carpentry, and so forth will take its place to a large degree, especially as buildings age and are not often rebuilt. The education system will ultimately refocus its efforts towards preparing more students for available job sectors, and colleges will focus on professional and technological fields, with a de-emphasis on liberal arts education.
As resources become scarce for law enforcement, many things which are now illegal may be decriminalized, or enforcement efforts may be so significantly reduced that few arrests are made. Focus will be placed primarily on dealing with violent crime and crimes against property. Someone from 2009 who is teleported to 2035 may see things for sale that they might find shocking.
Technology- Green technology will certainly be much better developed, as non-renewable resources become scarce or depleted. Solar panels, geothermal pumps, turbines, and electric fueling stations will be commonplace. More people will be using busses, but hard forms of mass transit like light rail and subway will prove to be cost-prohibitive outside of urban centers. While home electronics and gadgets are bound to be much more advanced, other things such as appliances and home and gardening tools may return back to basics for the sake of energy conservation. Computer technology will be prevalent, and with the maturation of nanotechnology, phones and computers can be integrated onto virtually any surface, even clothing. Physical currency will no longer exist in general circulation, as virtually all transactions will be conducted electronically.
Great strides will take place in medical technology, but the accessibility of that technology will be limited. Health care, of course, will reach a crisis point within the next several years, so the system will be fully re-structured (hopefully for the better) by 2035. A lot of medical technology may be placed into the patient’s hands, with testing, diagnosis, and prescriptions performed over the computer. The more well-off may even have sensors implanted that can detect and report health issues instantly.
Overall, I do not see Bristol becoming a ghost town as some may fear, nor do I see it as remaining the same or becoming any kind of ideal. The City will hopefully see more good times, and will certainly get its share of bad times as well, and it will most certainly change in ways I think much of the nation will change. Communities and regions have life cycles much like businesses do, and unfortunately the northeast and Midwest have aged significantly since their haydays. Times of growth will benefit less developed regions like the South and West the most, as Connecticut struggles to shed itself of a hard infrastructure built around different times and needs. But if the right investments are made, and if the city proves willing to make sacrifices to prevent itself from completely succumbing to poverty, it will come back to life during better times and remain a relevant part of America’s future.
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